To invest or not? The debate over identifying an optimal decision-making process remains as fresh as ever. We now appreciate, for instance, that humans are not as rational as economists like to think. We also understand the using gut instincts is more valid than some would believe. At times of uncertainty, one expert in the decision-making field makes the point, “You have to simplify to be robust.” The portfolio manager can learn from these developments. Investment analysis can fail, regardless of how many decision variables are being used. Sometimes you simply have to follow your instinct. ■
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